Election bounce signals small business confidence in Construction sector more than doubles
Wednesday 7th August 2024
The Election-bounce has had an immediate impact on small businesses in the construction sector. After a troubled period, the percentage of small construction businesses predicting growth has soared from 15% before the General Election to 36% for the three month period to 30 September.
The findings from the latest Business Barometer study by Novuna Business Finance suggest the boom for construction is part of a resurgent picture across the UK. Nationally, the percentage of UK small business owners predicting growth has hit its highest level for more than two years, after a period of slow decline since the start of 2022. The survey commissioned by Novuna Business Finance during the fortnight immediately after the General Election, revealed that, nationally, 35% of UK small business owners are predicting growth for the next three-months - a rise from 30% for the previous quarter. The research reveals a confidence bounce-back that is comparable to the years before Covid.
The growth predictions for the construction sector this quarter are above the national average and they have hit their highest level since Q1 2022, a time of hope and resilience, when Covid restrictions finally fell away.
Percentage of small businesses predicting growth each quarter – results over time
Q4 2021 | Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
Construction | 26% | 38% | 33% | 18% | 27% | 25% | 31% | 24% | 21% | 23% | 15% | 36% |
UK avg. | 35% | 36% | 34% | 34% | 31% | 33% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 33% | 30% | 35% |
Relative sector findings
Across nine industry sectors, this quarter sees a rise in the percentage of small businesses predicting growth for the next three months (up to 30 September). Compared to the three months leading up to the General Election, there are also significant rises in growth predications reported in: Agriculture (from 28% to 40%), IT/Telecoms (28% to 38%) – and also a welcome boost for the Retail sector (rising from 26% to 37%). Overall, small businesses in the Finance, Agriculture and Media sectors were most likely to be predicting growth over the next three months.
Percentage of small businesses predicting growth by industry sector
Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
Finance / Accounting | 44% | 41% |
Media | 40% | 36% |
Agriculture | 40% | 28% |
Medical | 39% | 36% |
Legal Services | 38% | 33% |
IT / Telecoms | 38% | 28% |
Retail | 37% | 26% |
Construction | 36% | 15% |
Manufacturing | 35% | 37% |
Transport & Distribution | 31% | 34% |
Hospitality/Leisure | 30% | 30% |
Real Estate | 28% | 25% |
Education | 26% | 33% |
Regional findings
Across nine UK regions, the new July data from Novuna Business Finance reveals a rise in the percentage of small businesses predicting growth. Confidence was strongest in London, with 49% predicting growth for the next three months. There were also significant quarter-on-quarter rises for small businesses based in the East (up from 36% to 43%), Scotland (up from 27% to 34%), Wales (up from 15% to 32%), the North East (up from 19% to 31%) and the East Midlands (up from 24% to 32%).
Percentage of small businesses predicting growth by region
Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
London | 49% | 43% |
East | 43% | 36% |
Scotland | 34% | 27% |
South East | 33% | 39% |
West Midlands | 32% | 29% |
East Midlands | 32% | 24% |
Wales | 32% | 15% |
North East | 31% | 19% |
Yorkshire/Humberside | 28% | 27% |
North West | 26% | 23% |
South West | 22% | 29% |
At Novuna Business Finance, our Business Barometer study has been tracking the growth outlook of small business owners every quarter for more than a decade now. The results over time show a remarkable consistency quarter-on-quarter, with outlook seldom changing significantly over a short period of time. Our latest research results represent the biggest quarter-on-quarter swing in growth outlook since the spring of 2021. We don’t think this is based on the political views of small business owners, it’s more a reflection of their perceived need for certainty. The sense of a new government coming in with a big public mandate, together with falling inflation, suggests solidity - and small businesses need a sense of stability and certainty to plan. Supporting a summer of resurgent business confidence, we at Novuna Business Finance are working to provide flexible tailored financial solutions that help established small businesses to achieve their true potential.
Jo Morris
Head of Insight
Novuna Business Finance
Notes
To register for a copy of the full report by Novuna Business Finance, exploring growth plans over the last decade visit:
The research was conducted by YouGov among a representative sample of 1,263 small business leaders between 6 - 24 July 2024. The research was conducted online.